Australian Wool Production Forecast for 2023/24

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has released its latest forecast for shorn wool production for the 2023/24 season, projecting a total of 328 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy. This estimate aligns with the shorn wool production for the 2022/23 season, indicating stability in overall output despite varying conditions across different regions.

Increase in Sheep Shorn and Regional Production Variations

The number of sheep shorn across Australia is forecasted to rise slightly by 1.0%, reaching 72.2 million head. This increase is attributed to the holding over of lambs and the retention of older breeding ewes. However, shorn wool production is expected to rise in New South Wales by 3.9% and in South Australia by 2.6%, while decreases are anticipated in all other states, reflecting diverse conditions and practices across the country.

Reduction in Average Cut Per Head

Despite stable overall production, the average cut per head is forecasted to decline by 2.2%, dropping to 4.54 kg greasy. This reduction is primarily due to dry seasonal conditions and a return to normal shearing patterns in most states. The seasonal conditions have been average to dry across all key wool-producing regions since the August forecast period. Shearing is reported to be on time and even ahead of schedule in many regions, compared to last season when shearing was delayed by up to three months due to wet weather.

Impact of Seasonal Conditions on Wool Characteristics

The ongoing dry conditions have also impacted other key wool characteristics:

• No Change in Fibre Diameter: AWTA key test data shows no change in the mean fibre diameter, which remains at 20.4 microns.
• Reduction in Staple Length: There has been a 1.7 mm reduction in staple length, bringing the average to 88.8 mm.

These changes are a direct result of the earlier shearing schedule and the dry conditions experienced across wool-producing regions.

Increase in Auction Volumes

The earlier shearing, combined with low sheepmeat and cattle prices, has led to an increase in auction volumes. AWEX reports that first-hand offerings are up by 8.9% compared to last season, with a notable 15% increase in the volume of prem shorn wool.Market Response and Producer Adaptations

Producers in some regions are taking advantage of lower stock prices by purchasing good quality younger stock to replace their older age groups. Additionally, there is some indication of a shift away from composite sheep production towards a first cross enterprise, aimed at improving the value of wool produced from sheepmeat-focused enterprises.

Market Response and Producer Adaptations

Producers in some regions are taking advantage of lower stock prices by purchasing good quality younger stock to replace their older age groups. Additionally, there is some indication of a shift away from composite sheep production towards a first cross enterprise, aimed at improving the value of wool produced from sheepmeat-focused enterprises.