Market Intelligence
Weekly Wool Market Commentary
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2024-S41
Week S41: 9/04/2025: The AWEX EMI closed on 1262c, up 13c at Auctions Sales held in Australia this week. In a week where economic turmoil was the lead story, the wool market performed positively for sellers considering the extent the world’s financial market reacted to the tariff wars between the US and their trading partners. Whilst we could do a little fist pump that the EMI landed in positive territory while the major financial indices crashed the sobering reality was that in USD terms FELL 34c and now sitting on 753USc. A slightly smaller 34,168 bales went under the hammer this week with a 95% clearance rate reflecting the seller’s clear intent to sell and repent. The weekly rises measured were predominantly recorded on Tuesdays with the EMI increasing by 15c to close on 1264c resulting in a clearing of 96.8%. Wednesday's offering was met with slightly less urgency and the EMI giving back 2c to close on 1262c.
Merino Fleece
Tuesday's market opened with the aid of a weaker Currency exchange rate which played in the favour of the seller. Sydney MPG’s rose between 11c and 31c, and has experienced in previous weeks, the focus has been on the best style and specified lots. This week however lots with lesser style and higher VM's all added reasonable value for the week. Wednesday’s market saw some price stability return to the sale room, as exporters were becoming more aware of the turmoil emanating out of the US in relation to their tariff on trade. Competition came from the Large Australian Trading Exporters, Chinese Topmakers and Indent operators.
Merino Skirtings
The Skirting market opened 5-10 c dearer across all microns and types. A continuation of the Chinese Indent operators on the FNF, bulky Skirting free of colour and cott was again noticeable. Wednesday saw the skirting market open unchanged with 18µm and finer best style skirtings adding another 10 c for the day.
Merino Cardings
All centres posted slight increases this week with Sydney up 4c, Melbourne up 6c and Fremantle up 13c.
Crossbred Fleece
Crossbred Oddments
Crossbreds
This week saw a reduced offering of XB combing lots which aided the 28 to 32 MPGs to rise between 3 and 15c for the week. Lots that fell outside the specifications remained heavily discounted. Competition from Chinese Trading Exporters and Australian Trading Exporters were dominant.
Next Week
offering of 43,678 bales and the AUD recovering back top .62usc from a few days below .59usc will be reasonable hurdles for the market to jump, given the events described in this report. ~ Marty Moses
Graphs
Market Commentary
Total chaos prevailed this week in world financial markets as the Trump administration acted out the US election promises of leveling the trade conditions with US tariffs via what was titled “Liberation Day”. As the rhetoric became a reality some countries like Vietnam and Israel reacted positively. Others most noticeably China, retaliated, slapping further Tariffs on the US imports. Trump returned serve by doubling the tariffs on China to taking it to a total 154%. This sent another shock wave around the world’s financial markets, and you would expect, did not react well. This week’s tariff war event caused a 9.5% downward swing in the S & P 500, and the Liberation Day event ranks the third worst event to cause in the S & P 500’s history. The Black Monday Aftermath of 1987 (-13.5%) and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (-11.5%) are the only events in history to surpass Liberation Day. As we know from our previous experiences in major world financial upheavals, it takes some time to recover from such an event. Whilst this week’s market did not remotely reflect the loss of confidence and the impact on future business, I think that this event will have on the wool trade. With improved demand for our magnificent fibre remaining under a cloud, lower wool production seems to be the only offset that may partially protect the wool prices in the short to medium term. Realistically a recovery from Liberation Day and restoration of consumer confidence may take months to bring to be resolved.