Week 18: 02/11/2017
The AWEX EMI pushed up 45c into new historic price territory at this week’s auction sales in Australia. The EMI closed at 1623 with all MPG’s contributing to this pleasing result. Rises between 30 & 80 were experienced in the merino sector with the 16.5, 17 and 19.5µ outperforming the remaining categories. In the fleece sector, both superior and poor for style and specifications were treated equally by buyers keen (at times, frantic) to secure stock in this positive market environment. Merino skirtings followed the fleece trend with rises between 50-100c posted for the week and cardings continued their bullish trajectory adding 56c, 72c and 24c respectively to Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle. The lagging Crossbred market was able to shake off its price woes this week, with solid rises across the micron entire range, not a minute too soon.
97.8% of the 46,217 bale offering cleared with Sydney, only passing 1.3% in for the week. Buyer interest was widespread but noticeably more urgent as soon as all centres offered on Wednesday and again Thursday. Next week offering falls back to 42,722 bales being offered in Sydney, Melbourne and Fremantle, and quite frankly any result within 2% of this market will be fantastic.
A special note that Sydney’s sale is a designated super-fine sale which should attract extreme competition.
The Forward markets report from Michael Avery reports “A difficult week on the forwards with sellers understandably content to sit while the momentum in the spot market followed on from last Thursday. The auction continued on its merry way although it appeared to be losing a bit of steam into the close. Buyers continued to look for value but became a little fatigued due to the lack of offering.
Growers looked to options and bid close to fair value. Current market historical highs and volatility has At The Market premiums out of reach growers but willing to accept lower strike prices can still achieve good minimum price contracts while being able to participate in the higher market levels should they be maintained into the New Year. 18.0 micron Put Options traded at an 85 cent premium for an August strike of 1970. We expect forward prices to be maintained at current levels with buyers looking for offers into the Christmas Recess. Growers should be targeting flat to cash for November and December. Buying interest is solid for early New Year but falls away into the autumn. This is hardly surprising as year on year all merino qualities are up 16 to 37% ranging from 18.0 up 604 cents (37%), 19.0 410 cents (26%) and 21.0 220 cents (16%).”
~ Marty Moses